Global growth and the argentinian failure
A lot of my friends, are wrong about the world not growing economically. It is Argentina that fails, the rest of humanity is doing more or less well. What's more, I know those whom didn’t noticed it, don't know how to project based on compound growth as opposed to linear, so I'll do the math for them.
The equation is initial value * (1+ average percentage change) powered to the number of periods.
Between 2000 and 2019, there are 19 periods at 3.8% annually, globally speaking.
It means that if the global GDP was 1 in 2000, in 2019 it was 2.03.
With the data given by the referenced page of the IMF, we have 2022, 23 and 24. From other webpages, I got 21 and 20.
The IMF projected in 2019, 3.3% growth in 2020, which was not realized, because it fell 3.4. Macrotrends shows that in 2021, it bounced 6.2%, so there we already have the numbers to make an index from the year 2000 to the present, for the average of the planet, of which, the harsh and unpleasant reality is that some friends, just like me, like this argentinian society, and our families, are among the idiots below that global average, which, our economic failures, does not mean that the rest of the world has not done well, doubling their income between 2000 and 2019.
In October 2023, the IMF published 3.5 for 2022, 3 for 2023, and perhaps 2.9 for 2024.
"The baseline forecast is for global growth to moderate from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, well below the historical average (2000–19) of 3.8%. ...."
I will do the math, continuing with the index, it gives:
if:
2000 = 1.00
Then:
2019 = 2.03
2020 = 1.96
2021 = 2.08
2022 = 2.15
2023 = 2.22
2024 = 2.28?
Sources:
https://www.imf.org/es/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/10/10/world-economic-outlook-october-2023
https://www.statista.com/topics/6139/covid-19-impact-on-the-global-economy/
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/?page=2
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate